To infinity and beyond - the race to become mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire
A man on a mission but does Luke Campbell have a clue where he is going?
Should Katy Perry ever be sent on a solo mission to Mars on the strength of spending a couple of minutes on the edge of earth’s orbit inside Jeff Bezos’ celebrity-filled rocket?
Probably not.
Meanwhile in our part of the galaxy should someone with zero experience of local government be propelled into the job of leading a public body with an annual budget of at least £50m?
The answer to that question lies in the hands of the electorate of Hull and East Yorkshire, or at least the 20 to 25 per cent of them who are likely to vote in the region’s first mayoral election on May 1.
As a write, Reform UK candidate Luke Campbell is not only the bookies’ favourite to win but was also 14 points ahead of his nearest rival Liberal Democrat Mike Ross in a YouGov poll published last Friday.
Of course, things can still change between now and polling day. For example, the Lib Dems will be hoping a scheduled visit by party leader Sir Ed Davy boosts their chances, especially if he follows up his General Election campaign by abseiling from the roof of Beverley Minster followed by a quick wrestle with a shark at The Deep.
Buy what happens if Campbell wins?
Not only would we have a brand new combined authority finding its feet but we would also have an elected mayor at its leader with no discernable knowledge of what the role actually entails.
Nothing in his occasional hustings appearances or more frequent social media posts suggests otherwise. His repeatedly expressed desire to give something back to those who supported him during his boxing career might be genuine but his soundbites about cutting council waste and corruption without being able evidence either are straight from Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s Greatest Hits repertoire.
As for the actual job at hand, he still seems completely clueless about what it involves.
It sounds like a car crash waiting to happen. Ironically, if he does win and take the wheel it will probably fall to those who he defeated in the election to make sure he doesn’t end up sending the combined authority skidding off the road at the first bend in the road.
While it’s highly unlikely that Campbell has read the governance arrangements for the new authority, I have. They spell out in some detail how it will function and, in particular, how decisions will be made.
For example, the authority’s voting members will include the the mayor and two councillors from each local council - Hull and the East Riding. In the event of a Campbell victory, they are almost certain to include Hull leader Mike Ross and East Riding leader Anne Handley, who is the Conservative candidate in the mayoral contest, along with their deputies at the Guildhall and County Hall respectively.
So we have a five-strong cabinet where, according to governance rules which are already in place, a simple majority is required on issues brought before it. The rules also state that majority must include the vote of the mayor.
In other words, Mayor Campbell would have to rely on securing the support of at least two other councillors to get anything done. So far, he’s shown little sign of attempting to build a consensus on anything. If anything, his repeated jabs about the councils being “broken” have only served to visibly infuriate both Ross and Handley.
In addition, when it comes to approving the authority’s annual budget and deciding on whether or not to set a levy, both lead members from each council must be part of the majority vote. In this scenario, he would have to rely on both Ross and Handley for support giving them more than enough scope to put their own stamp on the budget.
Against this backdrop, I would expect some discreet schooling to happen over the coming months.
Both Ross and Handley are experienced local politicians with established access to the higher echelons of their respective parties. They know how things work.
In practical terms, I can certainly envisage them encouraging Mayor Campbell to dump the Farage rhetoric over renewable energy and net zero.
Both intertwined issues are key elements of the wider Humber region’s economic development which just happens to be one of the remits of the new mayor.
In a BBC hustings, Campbell didn’t quite go full Farage when asked if he supported net zero, instead opting to sit on the fence by saying he was “50-50” on the issue. However, that’s still well out of step with most of the big local industrial players who are not only signed up to the concept of the Energy Estuary but are also financially committed to creating a greener economy.
If he does win, Campbell will also presumably discover for the first time that the authority he leads is already committed to supporting two major local renewable energy projects.
As part of the region’s devolution deal, the government has already given £24.5m in capital funding for a number of projects which will ultimately be overseen by the two existing councils and the new mayoral authority.
They include £2.5m towards a new solar farm development at Rawcliffe Bridge being led by East Riding Council and up to £5m towards any further expansion of the Siemens Gamesa offshore wind turbine facility at Hull’s Alexandra Dock.
Confirming full support for both would be an early sign that a Campbell-led mayoralty is at least able to think for itself than simply continuing to parrot Farage-style outrage over green energy.
Finally, you might be wondering where Labour fits into all this. Locally, it’s likely to be nowhere as I think the party is destined for a a fourth place finish in the election.
Nationally, how a Labour government works with a non-Labour mayor who would struggle to fit his manifesto onto the back of postage stamp remains to be seen.